The International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to condemn Iran for continuing its uranium enrichment programme in defiance of the United Nations security council, in a report due to be published today. IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei’s report is likely to prompt calls for sanctions against Tehran, but Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has repeatedly said he will continue with his country’s nuclear development programme regardless.

With Iran self-evidently defying the United Nations, interest in the report is focused on just how fast the IAEA estimates the Iranian programme is progressing, in particular as far as techniques for producing weapons grade plutonium are concerned. The UN security council will have to respond with punitive measures to maintain its credibility, experts believe – but the scale of the response will be determined by the degree of urgency the report provokes.

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